Metacognition

It has been stated that there is a cause for every effect, and an effect for every cause. It would be helpful to know when and how people deal with these causal relationships.

Deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning methods are useful for discovery and use of cause and effect relationships. Deductive reasoning starts with a causal event and a cause and effect rule then asserts the effect. Deductive reasoning narrows the search for a cause by using negative cause and effect rules to eliminate impossible causes. Inductive reasoning observes events, then conjectures a probable cause and effect rule. Abductive reasoning starts with an effect and possible cause and effect rules then asserts plausible causes. For analogy and Case Based Reasoning, substitute cases for rules.

Some circumstances in which people discover and use cause and effect relationships in the behavioral science ODEPC cycle are briefly described below. Since deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning methods are well documented, I have not included how people carry out these functions. I have also intentionally left out the metacognition process.

Observe: given an event, assess its impact.

• For a planned event, if there are unexpected results, submit event for explanation.
• For an unplanned event, if it is an unusual or unexpected event, submit event for explanation.

Describe: Given an event, provide relevant event information.

• Collect some pre and post events surrounding the target event from the event stream..
• Recall related memories of collected events.

Explain: Given an effect, find the cause.

• If this has happened before, then the possible causes are known.
• If this is the first time this happened, but something similar happened before, then possibly the same or similar causes are responsible.
• If this is the first time this happened and nothing similar has happened before, then find and test recent events that could be responsible.

Predict: Given a causal event, determine what effect may be expected.

• If this has happened before, then the known effects can be expected.
• If this is the first time this happened, but something similar happened before, then possibly the same or similar effects can be expected.
• If this is the first time this happened and nothing similar has happened before, then look at subsequent effects for a possible correlation.

Plan: Given a desired effect, determine what events will cause that effect.

• If the effect was successfully achieved before, then reuse the previous plan.
• If the effect was successfully achieved before and multiple plans are known, choose the best plan.
• If this is first time this effect has been sought, then determine which sets of events can cause the desired effect. Choose the best set of actions for current constraints.

Plan: Given a undesired effect, determine what events will prevent that effect.

• If the effect was successfully avoided before, then reuse the previous plan.
• If the effect was successfully avoided before and multiple plans are known, choose the best plan.
• If this is first time this effect has been encountered, then determine which sets of events can prevent the effect. Choose the best set of actions for current constraints.

Control: Given a plan, assure its success.

• Establish the criteria for success of the plan.
• Initiate the plan.
• If variations from the criteria for success are observed, then revise the plan.